AGP Executive Report

Ethanol Push in India: India launched E85 (85% ethanol) and highlighted flex-fuel vehicles as a way to cut crude imports and boost rural ethanol demand. Fertiliser and Oil Shock Watch: Reuters links the Iran war to higher oil costs and potential fertiliser supply strain for India, raising risks for growth, inflation, and farm inputs. BRICS Agriculture Talks: India chairs a five-day BRICS Agriculture Working Group in Indore focused on food security, climate-smart farming, trade, and farmer welfare, aiming for a joint declaration. Trade Balance Spotlight (Africa): South Africa logged a record Q1 agri trade surplus of $1.55bn, driven mainly by lower import costs and strong horticulture exports, while livestock exports still face FMD limits. Regional Water Resilience: Central Africa’s water and power problems are being tackled by restoring nature to reduce flood damage and protect water infrastructure. Policy/Border Fruit Risk: Nepal banned Indian mangoes over pesticide concerns, sparking trader fears of shortages and price spikes. Climate-smart Energy for Farms: G7 agriculture ministers met as fertiliser prices soar, underscoring how geopolitics and energy costs keep feeding into farm economics.

Fertiliser Crunch in Kenya: NCPB chiefs met North Rift farmers in Eldoret over a shortage of top-dressing fertiliser (CAN), pledging extra supplies under the Fertiliser Subsidy Programme after two weeks of scarcity sparked protests. Climate Risk to Food Imports: A new UN-linked analysis warns Middle East conflict is feeding into hunger, while heat stress and likely El Niño conditions could cut farm output in poorer countries that supply Britain’s food. Carbon Labels in China: Gansu’s Zhangye is rolling out carbon footprint labels for crops like potatoes and broccoli, turning emissions data into a “green ID card” for buyers. Drones for Mountain Farming in China: Chongqing farmers are using agricultural drones to fertilise, spray and sow on steep plots, cutting labour needs dramatically. Australia Cotton Outlook: ANZ says Australia’s 2025-26 cotton harvest balanced water limits and costs, with a possible drop to 3mn bales in 2026-27. India Mango Price Shock: Totapuri mango prices in Chittoor fell to Rs 4/kg amid export disruptions and processing delays, with farmers demanding MSP. EU Eyes Assam Agri-Food: EU “Team Europe” led by Ambassador Herve Delphin is visiting Assam to push value-chain cooperation, including tea and agri-food processing. Haryana Space for Farms: A satellite-based system is helping Haryana monitor crops and water stress, supporting millions of farmers and officials. South Africa Malaria Spread: Malaria cases are surging in southern Africa as climate shifts, threatening food and health security goals. Trade and Diplomacy: Russia’s Lavrov says Marcos may meet Putin at the Asean-Russia summit in Kazan, with energy and agriculture on the agenda.

US Farm Animal Welfare Fight: Congress is weighing a farm bill move that would block states from regulating livestock raising, targeting California’s Proposition 12-style rules on sow gestation crates and egg cages. Australia Biosecurity: Australia seized 100,000+ illegal exotic cockroaches in NSW, warning the trade could threaten native wildlife and agriculture. India Monsoon & Inputs: India’s southwest monsoon arrived late in Kerala, but forecasts still point to uneven, likely deficient rains—arriving on top of fertilizer and energy strain tied to Middle East disruptions. India Procurement Tensions: Nashik onion growers question relaxed procurement norms and eased quality/size rules, saying the real issue is procurement prices and transparent, timely implementation. EU-India Agri-Trade Push: “Team Europe” plans a June 8–9 visit to Assam, including launching a Blue Valley cluster for food processing, flavours and fragrances. Malaysia Dairy Expansion: An Australian-backed dairy valley in Johor aims for 4,000 cows and 10 million litres of milk by year three, building a wider dairy value chain. World Bank Energy Warning: India needs faster, tougher energy reforms to cut import dependence, with pricing changes flagged as politically hard but necessary.

Middle East Shock to Food and Fertilizer: IEA, IMF, World Bank and WTO warn that the widening conflict is hitting energy and food security, with fertilizer prices rising just as many countries enter critical planting seasons. Africa Food-Security Push: At Nairobi’s Africa Forward Summit, France and Kenya co-chaired a drive to mobilize private investment for food production and broader infrastructure, with Macron pitching a €23bn package. West Africa Rice Financing: ECOWAS and AGRA call for scaling investment and innovative finance to transform the rice value chain across West Africa. El Niño and Drought Planning: Kenya’s weather agency issues El Niño-related advisories, while a Philippine lawmaker urges government-led farmland leveling plus solar irrigation and water-saving practices. India Farm Inputs and Weather Risk: Analysts flag FY27 growth risks from higher input costs and a possible weak monsoon; separate reporting highlights monsoon “whiplash” with heat and deluges. Trade and Ag Supply Chains: Morocco widens its EU agro-food surplus early in 2026; China-Pakistan expand tropical ag research; China’s blueberry exports surge to Southeast Asia via faster trade links. On-the-ground Farmer Pressure: Uttar Pradesh sugarcane dues spark protests in Pilibhit as officials promise payments after auctions. Agritech and Productivity: India’s drone spraying costs and subsidy ranges are outlined, alongside a push for smarter harvest robots and veterinary education reform.

India Economy & Trade Risk: India’s GDP grew 7.8% in Jan–Mar 2026 and 7.7% for FY25/26, but West Asia conflict and possible US tariff delays cloud the outlook; PM Modi also chaired an Economic Advisory Council meeting on resilience, energy and trade routes. India Clean Fuel Push: State oil firms will sell E85 (85% ethanol) at a Rs 20/litre discount to E20, starting with 50–100 stations in Delhi-NCR, Pune, Mumbai and Nagpur, aiming to scale up through 2026. Livestock Biosecurity: USDA confirmed New World screwworm has reemerged in Texas (Zavala County), prompting monitoring and quarantine as the pest spreads from Mexico/Central America and threatens already tight beef supplies. Ghana Food Security Investment: Ghana launched the AgriConnect Compact, a $3.5bn World Bank-backed plan targeting cocoa, oil palm, rice, maize and poultry to improve productivity, markets and jobs. Agriculture Meets Politics in India: The viral “Cockroach Janta Party” staged its first street protest in New Delhi over exam leaks, taking youth dissent from social media to the streets. Conservation Beyond Parks: Scientists warn Africa’s biodiversity goals won’t work with protected areas alone, arguing wildlife depends on farmland and community-managed landscapes outside fences. Renewables With Agrivoltaics: Philippines’ PetroGreen secured an environmental certificate for a 98.2MW solar project in Capiz with an agrivoltaics component.

Agri-Trade & Logistics: Oman’s ports of Sohar, Salalah and Duqm are positioning as India’s gateway to West Asia and Africa after the India-Oman CEPA took effect June 1, with Sohar adding a dedicated bulk agricultural terminal and Salalah pushing food and farm exports. Farm Inputs & Costs: In Wisconsin, Trump courted dairy and crop farmers at Custer Farms, promising lower fertilizer and energy costs amid tariff and Iran-driven price pressure. Food Exports: Air India’s cargo push is moving fresh mangoes and other produce abroad—over 3,300 tonnes from March to May, including 1,000+ tonnes of mangoes. Climate Risk for Crops: India’s monsoon has arrived, but warnings of a possible “Super El Niño” are raising odds of weaker rains and knock-on effects for agriculture and food prices. Ag Tech & Training: A new $14.6m Agricultural Technical Center is breaking ground at Searcy High School, aiming to expand hands-on ag education. Bioeconomy Capacity: IICA and the Latin American Bioeconomy Network launched BioSinergia 2026 webinars to help turn biological resources into sustainable, inclusive development projects.

US Farm Policy & Trade: USDA deputy secretary Stephen Vaden said he’s confident China will keep buying U.S. soybeans under prior commitments, including 25m metric tons annually through 2028, while also pointing to broader demand for sorghum, cotton, poultry and beef. North America Market Stability: More than 150 food and farm groups urged renewal of USMCA, warning that letting it lapse would add uncertainty and ripple costs across agriculture. Animal Health Shock: USDA confirmed the first New World screwworm detection in the U.S. in decades (a calf in Texas), with West Virginia officials monitoring and stressing the food supply is unaffected. Climate & Weather Infrastructure: India inaugurated a new Regional Meteorological Centre in Jammu to improve forecasts and disaster warnings for Himalayan regions, with district-level services aimed at farmers and hydropower. Africa Food Sovereignty: An East African lawmaker warned that weak implementation could leave the region vulnerable to “new colonization” if seed and food policy control is lost, as EALA reviews a seed bill. Sustainable Inputs Innovation: IFA named Peregrine Hydrogen winner of its Cultivate Challenge for plant-nutrition-linked clean hydrogen tech, touting lower energy use. Regenerative Agriculture Scale-Up: Grupo Bimbo reported over 500,000 hectares under regenerative practices by end-2025, expanding programs across wheat, corn and sugar.

Climate-resilient farming in India: FAIFA is urging “El Niño-ready” agriculture after a new report flags extreme heat, erratic rain, soil degradation and groundwater stress, calling for a shift to climate-resilient systems. Food-price and growth pressure: India’s RBI kept FY27 growth at 6.6% but lifted its FY27 inflation forecast to 5.1%, citing higher food prices and West Asia-linked commodity and supply risks. Water conflict spillover: Pakistan renewed claims that India is “weaponizing water” via Chenab-to-Beas projects, warning the dispute could destabilize the wider Indus basin system. EU trade and input risk: OECD warns the Persian Gulf conflict is already pushing up oil, gas and fertiliser costs, with recession risk if disruptions persist into 2027. Africa farm funding gap: Ghana’s Eric Opoku says many African governments are missing the Maputo pledge to spend at least 10% of budgets on agriculture. West Africa rice push: ECOWAS launched a drive to mobilize investment for rice self-sufficiency by 2035, aiming to cut costly import dependence. Biosecurity and agriculture: Australia seized 100,000 illegal exotic cockroaches, warning they could threaten native wildlife and agriculture if released. China farm risk management: China is expanding mature weather index insurance for farmers and herders, using weather triggers to speed payouts after climate shocks.

EU-Moldova Investment Push: Moldova’s President Maia Sandu told a European investors’ conference that agri-food is a key growth area as European investment in the country has risen nearly 30% in four years, framing the EU path as “anchored in Europe.” India–Venezuela Energy + Ag Talks: Modi met Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodriguez, with both sides pointing to “natural complementarity” in energy and also discussing agriculture, transport, critical minerals and technology. Egypt Gains EU Fish Export Approval: Egypt’s food safety authority says it has secured EU approval to export farmed fish products, expected to take effect in Q3 2026 after meeting EU standards. Africa Aquaculture Momentum: A Gates Foundation-backed summit argues Africa could become a major aquaculture growth frontier because demand already exists but local production is under 2% of the global total. US Biosecurity Alert: USDA APHIS confirmed a New World screwworm detection in a Texas calf and says it’s moving to contain and eradicate the pest. China–Australia Beef Tariff Threat: China warned Australia could face a 55% additional tariff if beef shipments exceed new quota levels. Africa Funding Gap: Ghana’s agriculture minister Eric Opoku says many African governments are missing the Maputo 10% budget target for agriculture and rural development. Regenerative Soil Results: A France study reports regenerative farms cut drought losses by two-thirds, reinforcing soil health as a resilience lever. Farm Cybersecurity Warning: US agencies warn attackers are targeting automatic tank gauge systems and urge stronger passwords and less internet exposure.

Green Iron Push: Australia’s green iron plans face a demand crunch, with WWF warning none of eight projects have reached final investment decisions, despite a $1bn green iron fund and hopes to triple export revenue by 2060. Farm Costs & Policy Backlash: UK farmers are warning a carbon tax on “carbon intensive goods” could lift fertiliser costs by up to £100/tonne and squeeze margins, with some considering leaving land fallow. Crop Stress From El Niño: Hot, dry weather is already disrupting planting across Asia, and a strong El Niño could worsen drought from India to Australia, tightening supplies and pushing up wheat and rice prices. Biofungicide Deal for Asia: Syngenta and Ascribe Bioscience signed an agreement for PHYTALIX®, aiming to boost rice and other Southeast Asian crops’ resistance to major diseases. Labour Rights in Europe: Italy’s migrant farmworker killings spotlight exploitation in fruit supply chains and renewed scrutiny of caporalato. South Africa Emerging Farmers: Bayer and Khula launched a R7.5m accelerator to connect farmers to tools, finance, and market pathways. Water & Soil Restoration: China’s Dongying is turning saline-alkali land into productive wheat fields after a multi-year pilot. Cocoa Price Volatility: Africa’s cocoa farmers’ alliance says persistent price swings are undermining livelihoods and slowing investment. India Kharif Governance: India’s agriculture minister urged states to cut red tape so schemes reach farmers faster, with “rules must serve farmers” as the theme.

Trade Pressure on Africa: The U.S. proposes a 12.5% tariff on imports from eight African countries over forced-labour enforcement gaps, adding to already tense trade conditions. Food Security & Climate: South Africa’s “farm-to-table” push is shifting from lifestyle to survival as consumers demand cleaner supply chains amid food-access strain. Rural Finance & Housing: USDA Rural Development backs Lakota Funds as a new Native home-loan lender in South Dakota, expanding capital access on Tribal lands. Agri-Innovation Funding: Ecobank launches a $450m Nature Bond to channel finance toward sustainable farming, deforestation-free supply chains, and water systems. Market Access Challenge: An Africa-focused incubation push argues the real bottleneck is scaling and market access, not talent. Plant Health in West Africa: CABI convenes 16 countries in Accra to strengthen regional pest risk analysis against invasive threats. Farm Tech Risks: South Africa’s insurers warn precision farming brings cyber and connectivity vulnerabilities as margins tighten. U.S. Farm Costs: Louisiana shrimpers face diesel-driven cost shocks after earlier tariff-driven relief. Policy for Farmland: A U.S. senator urges tax rules that keep farmland in active farming hands, framing it as national security.

Tariff Pressure on Ag Trade: The U.S. opened public comments on a U.S.-China Board of Trade that could reshape tariffs on “non-sensitive” goods, with comments due July 10—an effort aimed at balance and reciprocity that could affect farm inputs and exports. Forced-Labour Crackdown: The USTR also proposed a 12.5% tariff on India and 59 other economies over forced-labour import allegations, raising the stakes for supply chains tied to agriculture and consumer goods. Farm Equipment Relief: Trump signed a proclamation cutting tariffs on imported agricultural and industrial equipment (like combines and harvesters) from 25% to 15% through 2027, targeting cost relief for U.S. farmers. Climate Risk to Crops: El Niño warnings are back, with India facing heat and drought risk that could hit monsoon rains and food prices. Drought in Central America: Guatemala’s Dry Corridor is bracing for crop failures as El Niño approaches, with emergency food supplies already prepared. Natural Farming Win: Andhra Pradesh Community Managed Natural Farming (APCNF) won the 2026 Food Planet Prize for scaling agroecology with 1.8m farmers. Biofuel Push in Africa: South Africa is looking to Zimbabwe’s ethanol blending model to cut farmers’ fuel input costs amid Middle East-driven price shocks.

Climate stress on livestock: India’s dairy sector is feeling extreme heat fast—scientists link hotter summers to earlier, weaker births and lower milk output, with one farmer reporting milk production dropping by nearly 30% during heat. Trade talks with food impacts: India and the US say they’re “about 99 percent” through the first tranche of a bilateral trade deal, with negotiators now aligning US legal changes into the final text. Africa rice push: Ghana’s VP Opoku-Agyemang urged West Africa to grow food security on African soil, calling for major investment across the rice value chain to cut import dependence. China agricultural modernization: China’s State Council released a 2026-30 plan targeting stronger grain capacity and higher farm product quality checks, alongside rural income and green development goals. Global ag supply chain risk: MUFG warned the Philippine peso could slide to ₱64.5 per dollar if the Middle East conflict re-escalates, with El Niño adding pressure—an indirect hit to food and farm costs. Export opportunity: China recognized all of Brazil as foot-and-mouth disease-free, opening more beef and pork exports. Farm equipment affordability: The White House cut tariffs on imported farm and construction equipment to 15% from 25%, aiming to ease costs for US growers. Food innovation in schools: South Africa is expanding aquaponics lessons to boost local food access and resilience.

Weather & Crops: Australia’s late wheat sowing got a boost from recent rain across NSW and Queensland, but farmers are bracing for a drier El Niño pattern and a smaller harvest than last year. Fertiliser & Food Security: With West Asia conflict tightening energy supplies, fertiliser prices are jumping and farmers from Senegal to India are looking at alternatives to chemical inputs. Trade & Market Access: India and the US say they’re about 99% through the first tranche of an interim trade deal, with remaining talks focused on “commas and full stops.” Water Governance: South Africa’s new National Water Amendment Bill would reshape water rights, including a proposed ban on private water trading—high stakes for agriculture and industry. Ag Tech & AI: India’s Primus Partners urges policy changes to speed trustworthy AI adoption in farming, while China’s rice-aquaculture model in Jilin shows how integrated systems can cut pesticide use. Labour & Safety: US farmworker advocates warn heat stress is still killing and injuring H-2A workers, pushing for stronger protections. Energy Costs Hit Farms: South Africa’s diesel shock is being felt through freight, food distribution, and farm machinery costs, not just the pump. Pests & Biosecurity: Japan-linked banana supply risks are rising amid Middle East-linked fuel disruptions, and US localities are expanding invasive pest controls like Japanese beetles.

Fertilizer Probe: The U.S. FTC opened an industrywide investigation into fertilizer pricing after spring spikes squeezed farm margins, with growers pointing to higher input costs and narrow margins. Food Prices Under Pressure: Tomato prices in the U.S. jumped about 40% year-on-year, with tariffs and shipping costs tied to conflict-linked disruptions adding to consumer strain. Onion Support in India: India raised onion procurement under its buffer stock scheme by 24.4% to Rs 15.80/kg to protect farmers and steady retail prices, alongside record pulse buffer stocks. Dairy Trade Watch: U.S. dairy output rose 2.8% in April, but strong export demand kept cheese and butter inventories below the five-year average. Tobacco Glut Relief (Philippines): Japan Tobacco International agreed to buy an extra 3.32 million kg of leaf to absorb a supply glut and limit losses for farmers. Livestock Health (South Africa): South Africa reported nearly 4.4 million animals vaccinated in its biggest-ever foot-and-mouth disease rollout, using newly procured vaccine doses. Trade & Market Access (U.S.-Africa): The U.S. Meat Export Federation urged USTR to investigate African barriers to U.S. beef and pork under AGOA, citing restrictions in South Africa, Nigeria, and others. Next-Gen Skills (Nigeria): A foundation launched a nationwide program targeting 20,000 Nigerian children with robotics, coding, AI, and entrepreneurship as Africa’s robotics market heads toward $4.29bn. EU Animal Traceability: Cyprus-backed EU rules tighten cat and dog welfare and require identification and registration to curb illegal trade.